Shoreline change projections for Aotearoa New Zealand. Data processed by Eduardo Gomez-de la Pena. Change was estimated using the Bruun rule, see README for more information.
This work is part of the Our Changing Coasts MBIE project, under the scope of the "Sedimentation and erosion" working group. Working group research co-leads: Profs. Giovanni Coco and Karin Bryan.
NZ transect data processed by Nick Young using the CoastSat toolbox and the NIWA Tide API. Shorelines corrected to MSL.
Sea-Level Rise projections taken from the the NZ SeaRise : Te Tai Pari O Aotearoa programme.
Caution: The Bruun rule assumes sediment balance. It may not be valid in places where sea walls are present, areas with significant alongshore transport, river mouths, sand spits, etc. If the shoreline hits a non-erodible limit, it will likely stop migrating following the Bruun rule.
The historical shoreline trend is derived from satellite observations. For scenarios that incorporate this trend, it is assumed that the observed satellite-derived beach trend will continue unchanged.