Decadal shoreline change projections for Aotearoa New Zealand. Data processed by Eduardo Gomez-de la Pena. The workflow combines process-based understanding with stochastic techniques, using Monte Carlo simulations to propagate uncertainties. Shoreline response to sea level rise was estimated using the Bruun rule. See README for more information.

This work is part of the Our Changing Coasts MBIE project, under the scope of the "Sedimentation and erosion" working group. Working group research co-leads: Profs. Giovanni Coco and Karin Bryan.

NZ transect data processed by Nick Young using the CoastSat toolbox and the NIWA Tide API. Shorelines corrected to MSL.Sea-Level Rise projections are taken from the NZ SeaRise: Te Tai Pari O Aotearoa programme.

Caution: The Bruun rule assumes sediment balance. It may not be valid in places where sea walls are present, areas with significant alongshore transport, river mouths, sand spits, etc. If the shoreline hits a non-erodible limit, it will likely stop migrating following the Bruun rule.

Historical shoreline trends are derived from satellite observations. Uncertainties in trends and SLR are propagated with a Monte Carlo approach.

If you have any questions about this data, please contact Eduardo Gomez de la Pena or Karin Bryan.